Decision Analysis

3 - 4 August 2014


Location: Manchester Grand Hyatt, San Diego, California
Held in conjunction with: AIAA Space and Astronautics Forum and Exposition (SPACE 2014)
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Synopsis

Decision Analysis (aka Trade Study) is a subject of the systems engineering process.  Decision needs to be made from conceptual development to verification, manufacturing and disposal; from system-level down to component/subcomponent levels.  It can be applied to any areas and subjects including your personal life.  This course will introduce the trade study role and process as part of the overall systems engineering process.  Different decision analysis methods will be introduced starting from the traditional trade study methods; then continue to trade space for Cost as Independent Variable (CAIV), Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHV) which is part of the Analytic Network Process (ANP), Weighted Sum Model (WSM), Potentially All Pairwise Rankings of All Possible Alternatives (PAPRIKA), and Decision Analysis with Uncertain information/data.  The highlights are: evaluation criteria weights assignment methods including an objective determination directly connected to customer requirements via Quality Function Deployment (QFD) methodology; how to down-select too many alternatives; various scoring methods for evaluation criteria; how to develop decision trees; mathematical eigenvector calculations to assist the decision analysis of AHP; the difference between AHP and ANP; how to handle billions pairwise combinations and rankings for PAPRIKA; and five methods to reach decisions with uncertain information/data under risk environment, and more.  An undocumented trade study is nothing more than a personal opinion.  Several ways of writing credible, accurate and thorough trade study report are introduced.  There are examples for each decision analysis method and trade study report.

Key Topics
  • Understand the trade study process and role in the overall systems engineering process.
  • Learn the traditional trade study methods: Defining selection criteria, Identifying weights, Identifying alternatives, Defining scoring criteria, Scoring alternatives, Calculating ratings for alternatives, and Performing sensitivity analysis.
  • Learn how to develop decision trees as hierarchical guidance for different levels of trade studies.
  • Learn the trade study role and contribution to Cost as Independent Variable (CAIV).
  • Learn how to use and apply decision analysis methods including Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHV) as part of the Analytic Network Process (ANP), Weighted Sum Model (WSM), Potentially All Pairwise Rankings of All Possible Alternatives (PAPRIKA), and Decision Analysis with Uncertain information/data.
  • Learn how to write a credible, organized, structured and thorough trade study report.


Who Should Attend

This course will be of interest to engineers, program/project managers, software engineers, Information Technology Specialist, educators and other professionals that need to learn how to make accurate decisions.