Last September, Northrop Grumman won the SDD phase of the LAIRCM program, which is designed to protect large military aircraft like this loaded C-17, shown during flight testing at Edwards AFB, Calif. (Air Force Flight Test Center courtesy photo.)

ATIRCM/CMWS
In 1991, the Army awarded a contract to Lockheed Sanders (now BAE Systems) to develop the AN/ALQ-212(V) ATIRCM (Advanced Threat IRCM).

ATIRCM, and the associated AN/AAR-57(V) Common Missile Warning System (CMWS), is an integrated system weighing under 125 lb. It features multispectral IR jammers in two steerable jam heads; an electronic control unit; the CMWS, consisting of four missile warning sensors; and a chaff/flare dispenser with electronic sequencer.

ATIRCM’s rapidly directable jam heads use a xenon arc lamp jammer to counter near- and mid-infrared waveforms used by existing IR-guided missiles. Next-generation missiles, which use far-infrared to detect even the warm skin of a helicopter, will be countered with a directed laser beam.

ATIRCM was an important program from the start, but when the Army took responsibility for all future missile warning systems in 1995, it became a huge program. Later that year, the Army awarded Lockheed Sanders a $97.6-million contract for EMD, beating out Nemesis DIRCM and becoming, essentially, the nation’s future defense against IR-guided missiles. At its peak in 1998, the total program cost was projected at $3 billion.

But delays and cost increases beset ATIRCM, and in 1999 DOD again studied the Nemesis as an alternative. DOD decided to stay with ATIRCM, but the Navy and Air Force backed out.

Current plans call for ATIRCM production for over 1,000 Army helicop-ters. The first platforms to get ATIRCM will be MH-60K and MH-47E Special Operations helicopters, then Apaches, and only later the UH-60(X), EH-60, CH-47D, and RAH-66 (if it reaches production).

ATIRCM/CMWS has been at risk of total cancellation at least twice in the past year. Since August, the Army has been threatening to cancel the program, despite successful completion of live-fire tests in April 2001. Then DOD zeroed the ATIRCM line in the FY02 budget, only to see it reinstated. Finally, early this year, the Army listed ATIRCM among 18 programs to be cut to increase funding for the Future Combat System.

But despite all this, the Army still needs hundreds of advanced IRCM systems, and we are still forecasting ATIRCM production. Without it, Special Operations and Apache helicop-ters would be left with the ancient ALQ-144 (unless the Army buys the DIRCM instead, but there has been little indication of this). A low-rate initial production contract should come this year or in 2003.

	Nemesis DIRCM is now a solid competitor.

Nemesis DIRCM
The loser in the original ATIRCM competition, Northrop Grumman’s Nemesis Directed IRCM, has not gained as much from ATIRCM’s troubles as it might have, but it has firmed up as a solid competitor. The U.K. Ministry of Defense (MOD) began funding IRCM research in 1989, with the Special Operations Command (SOCOM) joining the effort. ATIRCM was still far from production-ready, and in March 1995 DIRCM was selected by both the MOD and SOCOM. One reason for DIRCM’s earlier availability was that its design entailed initially mounting a directed IR xenon arc lamp, with a laser system planned as a retrofit; ATIRCM will not be produced until the laser is ready.

DIRCM’s AN/AAR-54 detects incoming missiles. If it spots one and determines it to be a threat, DIRCM then tracks the missile while maintaining a countermeasures beam of IR energy on target from the turret-mounted transmitter unit. DIRCM for helicopters is about the same size as ATIRCM, but the fixed-wing version is considerably larger, weighing about 500 lb.

The U.K.’s $271-million contract (options to $450 milllion-$500 million) will buy 131 DIRCM systems for 10 different platforms, but there is a requirement for 186 systems. The $171-million SOCOM contract will procure 64 systems for MC-130E/H transports and AC-130H/U gunships. SOCOM has now picked DIRCM for the CV-22 as well.

In 1999, Australia became the first customer for the Viper mid-infrared laser DIRCM system, for seven Wedge-tail AEW aircraft, with a $20-million contract reportedly signed early this year. Northrop Grumman plans to deliver systems from late this year through late 2003, and system integration on the aircraft will begin in 2004.

Teal Group believes DIRCM will continue for many years as a direct competitor to ATIRCM, especially in the international market. Indeed, DIRCM may even be ready first with a laser countermeasures system for Australia. However, unless ATIRCM performance is seriously lacking, or production is further delayed, DIRCM will probably never reach ATIRCM production numbers. After U.S. SOCOM production, DIRCM is planned for only very limited U.S. procurements.

But having the jump on ATIRCM does give DIRCM the first chance to prove itself. If the company keeps the price down and the performance competitive with ATIRCM, a much larger production future is possible. The U.S. will probably remain committed to ATIRCM for major helicopter procurements, but has already chosen a DI-RCM derivative, Large Aircraft IRCM (LAIRCM), for its C-130 and C-17 fleets.

Northrop Grumman is also aiming at the VIP transport market, having entered negotiations with the Israeli Defense Force in 1999. International sales will be a free market that could surprise the forecasters. We are forecasting healthy additional production, which could go up significantly, or down a little.

LAIRCM
Benefiting even more from ATIRCM’s troubles are two new specialized IRCM programs for large aircraft and fast jets. Originally planned for ATIRCM, these platforms have now split off with new competitions, and each will be almost as big as ATIRCM itself (and perhaps bigger than DIRCM).

Last September, Northrop Grumman won the $66.5-million System Design and Development phase of the Air Force LAIRCM program for the C-17 and C-130, with Phase I including 20 systems produced. Phase II could outfit 59 more aircraft. Ultimately, all the Air Mobility Command’s 943 C-17s, C-130s, KC-135s, KC-10s, and C-5s could be equipped, with highly optimistic straight-line production projections worth as much as $2 billion-$6 billion. JSTARS, AWACS, ABL, and the Navy’s P-3C Orion are other potential platforms.

LAIRCM will be optimized for large aircraft, which present a greater IR heat source for incoming missiles. Current IR-guided missile sensors have very narrow fields of view, and the dispersed engines on a large aircraft offer several targets. Missile warners and countermeasures dispensers must essentially cover more than one “aircraft.” LAIRCM must jam or destroy the sensor of an incoming missile and not let it reacquire another engine. Thus, a higher power laser that destroys the missile’s sensor, rather than disrupting it, is preferable to an IR arc lamp.

Large aircraft are especially vulnerable on takeoff and landing, when missile warners and flare dispensers are least effective, so LAIRCM must be especially effective low and slow. A large aircraft’s greater IR signature also lets missiles acquire and track from longer ranges; LAIRCM’s missile warning system (MWS) must have a greater range than the CMWS and AAR-54, and may require costlier IR-type sensors. LAIRCM’s design, based on the DIRCM with the Viper laser, currently does include the AAR-54.

A Closed-Loop IRCM has been suggested for Phase II LAIRCM production. A CLIRCM laser would analyze incoming missiles, determine their type, then return a custom jam code sequence that would cause the missile to break lock and move sharply away from the target aircraft, allowing engagement of another target after only 3-4 sec. This would certainly surpass today’s open-loop systems, which simply try to confuse missiles with random false targets or IR energy, making the missile wobble in flight but not necessarily break lock. The missile can then reacquire the target if the jam head moves to another missile. But Teal Group finds it unlikely that an effective CLIRCM can be completed in the next year or two, and for half the cost of current systems.

LAIRCM could be a huge program, but this has been said before (even by this author). ATIRCM has shrunk because of development problems, delays, and, now, lack of funding. A figure of $2 billion-$6 billion has been mentioned by the Air Force as a production-value number for LAIRCM. A highly optimistic, straight-line projection from current technology does produce these numbers (1,000 transports at $3 million per LAIRCM suite would yield $3 billion), but this assumes LAIRCM unit costs remain high for the next decade or two, and that the services can fund 1,000 systems.

We do not think that will happen. Either costs will come down drastically, or numbers will never reach 1,000 aircraft. Remember, these are transports, and the Navy and Air Force have not even put a decent new EW system on fighters in the past decade (except for 100 or so AN/ALQ-165s). If they cannot buy systems for the front line, transports are not going to get them. On the other hand, we do see the need for large aircraft IRCMs, and are optimistically forecasting production more or less on schedule.

	IRCM Value (RDT&E+procurement value [FY02 $millions])

TADIRCM
Tactical Aircraft DIRCM is a Navy development program for the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet. Optimization for combat jets will require two major changes from ATIRCM and DIRCM. Both those programs rely on missile cueing from UV-type MWSs, which detect UV radiation from a missile’s rocket engine. TADIRCM specifies an IR-type staring (nonrotating) sensor, which has a longer range and better clutter rejection, and operates at different wavelengths to minimize false alarms. A disadvantage of IR-type systems is the need for cryogenic cooling, which adds weight and expense. The second change is a smaller, more aerodynamic jam head for the laser jammer—considerably smaller than the DIRCM and ATIRCM types.

TADIRCM originated as an advanced technology development program, with most funding coming from BAE Systems and Northrop Grumman for in-house activity. BAE Systems’ TADIRCM has about 60% commonality with ATIRCM. Northrop Grumman’s TADIRCM, called Wanda, has a Viper mid-infrared laser in a 5.5-in. dome. A winner for the EMD stage is expected this year.

Teal Group believes TADIRCM will go ahead, although with much ATIRCM or DIRCM commonality, and will be a major program. It has also offered another IRCM competition for BAE Systems vs. Northrop Grumman. And although the system was developed for fighters, other platforms such as C-17 fast transports would benefit from its smaller, smoother jam head and longer range MWSs. Our production forecast is thus highly speculative, based on a four-year EMD program beginning this year.

The U.K.’s Fast Jet DIRCM has evolved in parallel, for fighters such as the Tornado and Eurofighter. In January, the MOD awarded BAE Systems a $5.6-million technology demonstration contract to further develop its DART (Defensive Avionics Receiver Transmitter), integrated with a laser warner and the company’s CMWS. DART, which incorporates simplified optical paths and multiple electrooptical/IR interfaces, is smaller than TADIRCM. But we believe Fast Jet production is less likely, as there is a good chance the U.K. will buy TADIRCM if it is successful. With the U.K. a full partner in the Joint Strike Fighter, there would be great advantages to a joint TADIRCM.

	IRCM Production (Production systems, units)

Drawing conclusions
Looking at the IRCM production forecast over the next 10 years, it is remarkable how similar these four programs will be once they reach full-rate production—although DIRCM production will drop after initial U.K. and SOCOM orders are filled. In losing the once-total dominance of ATIRCM, BAE Systems has lost what was an almost guaranteed single world market for this decade and the next.

Northrop Grumman has gotten a jump on the market with DIRCM. This opportunity for the system to prove itself, in combat, could turn around the decline now forecast for it after initial orders are filled. If DIRCM saves some lives in Afghanistan, there may be an even greater shift away from ATIRCM. The DIRCM production forecast could stabilize at, or increase from, 2004 levels. There is plenty of ATIRCM market yet to be filled.

But despite all its losses, the IRCM value forecast shows that BAE Systems will still become the No. 1 IRCM company once ATIRCM production begins, at least in the medium term. This is because it gained a 50% share in the DIRCM program when it acquired Lockheed Martin’s Sanders. Northrop Grumman tried, unsuccessfully, to convince antitrust officials to order BAE Systems to divest ATIRCM. BAE Systems claims firewalls and other methods will continue to ensure competition between ATIRCM and DIRCM.

If Northrop Grumman keeps LA-IRCM production, it will be TADIRCM that determines the world IRCM leader by 2010. That company and BAE Systems will be running neck-and-neck in funding value after LAIRCM production ramps up. If TADIRCM comes online on schedule, it will be as important as the USAF Advanced Targeting Pod competition was for the FLIR market. In any case, the world IRCM market will be controlled by these two companies after the next five years.

Because we see no end to the continuing proliferation of shoulder-fired IR-guided SAMs, these next-generation IRCM systems will gradually infiltrate world helicopter and fixed-wing markets over the next two decades. If directed-laser systems prove more capable of protecting aircraft than punching out dozens of flares, this will be the place to be in airborne electronic warfare.